{"id":300758,"date":"2023-10-31T06:40:32","date_gmt":"2023-10-31T11:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liveaction.org\/news\/?p=300758"},"modified":"2023-10-29T22:03:46","modified_gmt":"2023-10-30T03:03:46","slug":"abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable\/","title":{"rendered":"Why abortion numbers are difficult to obtain – and are often unreliable"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

(Secular Pro-Life<\/a>) Collecting accurate figures about the incidence of abortion is remarkably difficult.<\/strong>\u00a0This is the case not only in countries where abortion is illegal, but also in those where the practice is legal but the healthcare system either can not or does not want to provide accurate figures. Generally speaking, no country with a\u00a0low or medium Human Development Index (i.e. below 700)\u00a0<\/a>keeps accurate official registries of the incidence of abortion.<\/a><\/p>\n

In order to remedy this shortcoming, several methods have been developed for estimating the incidence of abortion. The two most broadly used methods were developed by pro-choice organizations. The residues method (also known as proximate determinants of fertility framework)\u00a0was developed in 1982 by Population Council\u2019s researcher John Bongaarts<\/a>\u00a0and the Abortion Incidence Complications Method (AICM)\u00a0was developed by the Guttmacher Institute in the early 1990s<\/a><\/p>\n

Residues method yields very high figures<\/strong>.<\/h3>\n

The residues method, developed by John Bongaarts, involves using a complex equation including possible fertility (the total number of children a woman would be able to have along all her life should she not use any family planning method nor had any fertility issues), the contraceptive prevalence rate, and other data in order to get an abortion rate\/ratio. The main point is that Bongaarts\u2019 method is extremely likely to yield very high abortion rates\/ratios. For example, the residues method\u00a0gave a figure of around 500,000 abortions in Argentina for 2005<\/a>.<\/p>\n

AICM also produces alarmingly high estimates.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Abortion Incidence Complications Method (AICM) is simpler, but the bias takes a different form. This method takes the figure of women treated for complications of induced abortions and then uses an estimated multiplier for the number of abortions corresponding to every hospitalization. The multiplier is calculated by making a survey of \u201cpublic health experts.\u201d This item does not include just obstetricians, gynecologists and doctors in general, but also people like \u201ccommunity activists\u201d or \u201cactivists of women\u2019s organizations,\u201d which looks much like a code word for pro-choice activists. Moreover, given the current polarization regarding the abortion issue, the recruitment of a research team without a bias in one sense or the other is quite difficult.<\/p>\n

The complications method has resulted in alarmingly high estimates. For example: around\u00a0800,000 abortions in 2006<\/a>\u00a0and around\u00a01,000,000 in 2009 for Mexico (44 abortions\/100 births)<\/a>. For Pakistan,\u00a0an estimation of 2.2 millions in 2012 (41 abortions\/100 births) was given<\/a>. For Colombia,\u00a0the estimated figure was 400.000 (56 abortions\/100 births) in 2008<\/a>. The same exaggerated figures\u00a0are given for almost every country where abortion is illegal<\/a>, regardless of their social, economic or cultural features.<\/p>\n

Actual figures<\/strong>\u00a0turn out to be vastly lower than Residues and AICM estimates.<\/h3>\n

Very often, when abortion is legalized, it emerges that the real figures for the incidence of abortion were less than a third or even less than a seventh of the previous estimations.<\/p>\n

For example, in 2006 the AICM estimated\u00a0165,000<\/a>\u00a0abortion in Mexico. After abortion was made legal in Mexico City in 2007,\u00a0the number of abortions performed in government-run hospitals was less than 20,000 a year\u00a0<\/a>(data about abortions from private healthcare providers are not available, but given the level of widespread reliance on government-run healthcare in Mexico, the figure should be lower).<\/p>\n

Similarly, in 2005\u00a0the Residues method estimated 500,000 abortions in Argentina<\/a>. Abortion was legalized in Argentina in 2020, and in 2021 and 2022, the first two years in which the practice was legal, actual figures were\u00a073,487<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a096,664<\/a>, for each year.<\/p>\n

Other methods of estimating<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Other methods which are less used involve interviewing people close to post-abortive women, using probabilistic samples,\u00a0the so-called \u201cconfidante method.\u201d<\/a> The reliability of this method is compromised by the controversial nature of the issue and the influence which the attitude towards abortion or experiences with it could have…<\/p>\n

Read entire article at Secular Pro-life.<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Editor’s Note: This article was published at Secular Pro-life<\/a> and is reprinted here with permission.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Secular Pro-Life) Collecting accurate figures about the incidence of abortion is remarkably difficult.\u00a0This is the case not only in countries where abortion is illegal, but also in those where the practice is legal but the healthcare system either can not or does not want to provide accurate figures. Generally speaking, no country with a\u00a0low or […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":959,"featured_media":187834,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false},"categories":[7077],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy abortion numbers are difficult to obtain - and are often unreliable<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Historically, abortion numbers in countries where it is illegal have later been found to have been grossly overestimated.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why abortion numbers are difficult to obtain - and are often unreliable\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Historically, abortion numbers in countries where it is illegal have later been found to have been grossly overestimated.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Live Action News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/liveaction\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-10-31T11:40:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-10-30T03:03:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/shutterstock_1167945427-abortion-medical-instruments.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"650\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Pablo Mestrovic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@liveaction\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@liveaction\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Pablo Mestrovic\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Pablo Mestrovic\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/6e84dc3abc0b8deb061a37e90192972f\"},\"headline\":\"Why abortion numbers are difficult to obtain – and are often unreliable\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-10-31T11:40:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-10-30T03:03:46+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable\/\"},\"wordCount\":643,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Guest Column\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/archive.liveaction.org\/news\/abortion-numbers-difficult-obtain-unreliable\/\",\"name\":\"Why abortion numbers are difficult to obtain - 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